A Century of International Crisis Behavior

Subjects: Political Science, International Relations
Paperback : 9780472058181, 566 pages, 66 illustrations, 30 tables, 6 x 9, August 2026
Hardcover : 9780472078189, 566 pages, 66 illustrations, 30 tables, 6 x 9, August 2026
Open Access : 9780472905980, 566 pages, 66 illustrations, 30 tables, 6 x 9, August 2026
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Examining times of crisis through the lens of 100 years of data

Table of contents

Contents

List of Figures: xi

List of Tables: xv

Acknowledgments: xvii

Preface: xix

I. Introduction and Overview

1. Tracking a Century of International Crisis by Kyle Beardsley, Patrick James, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld: 3

2. Historical and Emerging Trends in International Crisis Behavior by Kyle Beardsley and Jonathan Wilkenfeld: 24

Summary of Section I by Patrick James: 52

II. The State of the Field— IIa. System Level

3. Alliances, Coalitions, and International Crisis by Daina Chiba and Yuan Zhuang: 61

4. Forced Migration Crises: A Rising Danger in World Politics by Hemda Ben-Yehuda and Rami Goldstein: 84

IIb. Dyadic Level: 107

5. Economic Interdependence and International Crises by Yuleng Zeng and Ali Isgandarov: 109

6. Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in International Crises by Kyungwon Suh: 125

7. Protracted Conflict and Crisis Escalation by Luba Levin-Banchik: 149

IIc. State Level: 173

8. Diversionary Theory and Crises in World Politics by Emizet F. Kisangani and Jeffrey Pickering: 175

9. Crisis Type Matters: Implications for Ethnicity and the Democratic Peace by Meirav Mishali-Ram and Hemda Ben-Yehuda: 195

10. Leaders, Regime Type, and International Crises by Yi Edward Yang and Jonathan Keller: 213

Summary of Section II by Patrick James: 226

III. New Findings— IIIa. System Level: 231

11. Civil Wars and the Clustering and Contagion of International Crises by Mehmet Erdem Arslan and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch: 233

12. A Review of International Organizations and International Crises by Yun Jung Yang and Zorzeta Bakaki: 251

IIIb. Dyadic Level: 273

13. Near Crisis Dynamics in the Shadow of Nuclear Weapons by Edward Gonzalez, Miriam Barnum, and Patrick James: 275

14. Cultural Influences on Mediation in International Crises by Molly Inman: 294

15. Mediation Styles and Crises Recurrence by Constantin Ruhe: 319

IIIc. State Level: 343

16. Exogenous Factors and the Bargaining Process in International Crises by Vesna Danilovic and Joe Clare: 345

17. What Is Escalation? Measuring Crisis Dynamics in International Relations with Human- and LLM-Generated Event Data by Rex W. Douglass, Erik Gartzke, Jon R. Lindsay, J. Andrés Gannon, and Thomas Leo Scherer: 372

18. Escalation Management in Gray Zone International Crises by Jonathan Wilkenfeld and Egle E. Murauskaite: 395

19. Deterrence in the Early Stages of Crisis by Kyle Beardsley, Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Phuong Pham, Corinne DeFrancisci, Diana Partridge, and Megan Rutter: 418

Summary of Section III by Patrick James: 441

IV. Summing Up and Moving Forward: 447

20. A Systemist Mapping of a Century of Crisis by Patrick James: 449

References: 463

Contributors: 519

Index: 525

Description

Perhaps more than ever, we need to invest in the study of the causes and consequences of crises. Since its founding in 1975, the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project has aimed to better equip academics, policymakers, and the next generation of engaged citizens to make sense of why crises arise and how they can be more effectively managed and prevented. The ICB Project’s data holdings consist of full-length qualitative case studies, along with an expanding range of quantitative datasets that include information regarding the characteristics of the states in crisis, crisis behavior, attempts at third-party crisis management, the role of nonstate actors, and the system-level context.
A Century of International Crisis Behavior summarizes the evolving patterns of international crisis behavior in the more than 500 cases cataloged since 1918, provides an accounting of the state of the scholarship to make sense of the patterns, and presents new findings that advance our understanding. Chapters are grouped according to their level of analysis: studies of systems, dyads, and states. The authors highlight what we have learned and what we have yet to learn regarding the prevention, escalation, and de-escalation of international crises.

Jonathan Wilkenfeld is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland.
Kyle Beardsley is Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at Duke University.
Patrick James is Dean’s Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the University of Southern California.

A Century of International Crisis Behavior is a must-read for all students intending to study international crises in the field. It will not only inspire scholars to utilize the ICB data but also encourage them to broaden the scope of their studies beyond the ICB data.”

- Kai He, Griffith University

A Century of International Crisis Behavior extends the rich International Crisis Behavior (ICB) dataset for the academic and policy communities, using core variables and adding new cases. There are very few projects that have sustained data collection for more than forty years. The quality of the editors and of their data collection is the gold standard in international conflict, crisis, and war.”

- Steven Lobell, University of Utah