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A decade ago, we began work on the book, The Remarkable Rise of Transgender Rights, to explore the puzzle of how such a small, marginalized community that experienced so much discrimination, poverty, and violence had been able to secure political rights and societal recognition over the space of just a few years. In 2014, TIME magazine had declared a “Transgender Tipping Point,” public awareness of transgender people became widespread, and states were passing policies to protect transgender people from discrimination. These early successes recognizing transgender people, their basic civil rights, and the challenges they faced appeared to be gaining momentum in the following years.

Yet, this Pride season, there is not a lot to celebrate. The Trump administration has taken numerous actions against elements of the transgender community. From banning transgender military service to interpretations of federal law that exclude gay and transgender people, the policy trends coming out of Washington are ominous for the LGBTQ community. Meanwhile, Republican-controlled states have passed a wave of anti-transgender laws banning gender affirming medical care for minors, blocking participation of transgender girls in sports, and even the same kinds of bathroom restrictions that drew widespread condemnation a decade ago. Sadly, state-level policy changes included Iowa’s rolling back previously-passed transgender-inclusive nondiscrimination policies. Of course, the 2024 elections saw transgender people successfully demonized by Republican candidates up and down the ballot. And, the United States Supreme Court’s recent decisions threaten to undo important precedents that protect gay and transgender rights.

So, how did we move from a country that was expanding inclusion and protection of transgender rights to one where this community is facing increasing threats at all levels of government? Perhaps this is a case of mass opinion backlash, which occurs when perceived political or cultural gains by a minority group generate negative reaction among the dominant group as they seek to preserve their advantaged position in society. In other words, has the rapid rise of transgender rights sparked a grassroots backlash against the transgender community that has resulted in these recent policy restrictions?

Research on public opinion backlash against the LGBTQ community is skeptical. Benjamin Bishin and his co-authors argue in Elite-Led Mobilization and Gay Rights that rather than a mass opinion response, political elites generate policy backlashes against sexual minorities. In recent years, Republican party elites used opposition to LGBTQ rights as an electoral tool to mobilize and reward Christian conservatives. In 2024, Trump was able to merge this approach with his populist economic message with the slogan, “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you.”

Yet, it is unclear whether the policy backlash of the past few years has been a response to public opinion or whether it is more of an elite-driven policy response. In our own research on public attitudes toward the transgender community, we documented growing support for transgender rights through 2022, especially when policies were framed as civil rights issues. For example, majorities of the public increasingly supported transgender people serving openly in the military and states passing laws to protect transgender people from discrimination. However, we have also noted that the public is less supportive and open to framing on issues that appear to invoke “body politics” and morality considerations, such as sports participation, bathroom use, gender affirming medical care for transgender minors, and public funding of gender affirming medical care. Ominously, this is where Republicans at the state and national level have largely focused their attention.

So, has public opinion turned against the transgender rights in a form of mass backlash? Or, are the recent policy actions political tools of partisan elites? As seen in the time series graphs below, which compile numerous national surveys asking about recent policies affecting transgender people, there is not a clear and consistent pattern of mass backlash.

Throughout the past decade, the public has strongly supported allowing transgender people to serve openly in the military. Though there is a slight decline in support in 2025, a large majority of Americans oppose Trump’s reinstatement of a ban on transgender people serving in the armed forces. Meanwhile, attitudes about public restroom access have long been mixed, with higher percentages of Americans preferring a restrictive policy. Levels of support have only slightly increased in recent years, but opposition to these policies has declined as uncertainty about this issue has risen. A similar pattern, albeit one that has a shorter time span, is evident in attitudes about restrictions on medical transition care for minors. Until 2025, opposition to bans on medical transition care had increased. It is not clear whether the more recent downturn was sparked by bans enacted in some states, but it does not appear to predate them.

Attitudes about transgender people participating in gender-segregated sports looks more consistent with a public opinion backlash. Beginning in 2021, the public has increasingly supported bans on sports participation, particularly for transgender girls and women. A marked decline in support for allowing transgender women to participate in sports in 2022 follows a period of increased media attention to the issue, including coverage of swimmer Lia Thomas’ participation in the NCAA swimming competition. Importantly, this pattern is distinct from the other transgender issue attitudes, suggesting that the issue may not have broader implications for public attitudes on other policies. As we have seen in previous research, framing and issue-specific considerations significantly affect public attitudes toward transgender rights issues in ways that vary across each issue. For example, sports policies involve body politics and competitive fairness frames, while military service tends to center on civil rights and national security.

Yet, in all, survey data suggests that there has not been a consistent backlash to transgender rights, with the possible exception of attitudes about sports participation. Instead, the patterns appear to be more consistent with elite-driven policy reactions. In addition, the survey data show a significant amount of uncertainty in public opinion on all transgender rights issues, suggesting that public attitudes are still malleable. As such, it is vitally important for the LGBTQ movement to shape public attitudes on transgender rights. They need to do this before public attitudes harden against transgender people. While this is a daunting challenge, it is something that the movement did before with gays and lesbians. Many of the same techniques are going to be effective. Transgender people need to be out and have contact with the larger public. Given the small size of transgender community, gays and lesbian advocates will need to continue to be surrogates for transgender equality. The same will be true for the friends and families of transgender people. The movement needs to emphasize equality in its messaging. It needs to highlight injustices, particularly those done by governments. However, transgender people cannot just be seen as victims. In the spirit of Stonewall, they must strategically fight back by changing public opinion.

Jami Taylor (University of Toledo)
Andrew Flores (American University)
Donald Haider-Markel (University of Kansas)
Daniel Lewis (Siena College)
Patrick Miller (Kent State University)